Gartner just made a prediction the PR industry has waited a long time to hear. By 2027, it says, mass adoption of public LLMs as a replacement for traditional search will drive a twofold increase in PR and earned media budgets. Doubled. I could not be happier.
Why are PR and earned media budgets set to double?
Budgets are rising because people now ask ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Perplexity who to hire, what to buy, and which companies to trust. Those engines don't answer from ads. They answer from what credible sources say about a brand.
Reported findings from the Gartner research indicate that more than 95% of links cited in AI-generated answers come from earned, shared, or organic owned content, and 27% come directly from earned media. Earned media is now the fuel for AI visibility. Brands with strong coverage in trusted outlets get recommended. Brands without it get ignored. I made the same point in AI Models Are Quietly Becoming Reputation Managers, and in Growth Marketing Now Runs Through AI Search, Not Google.
How do AI engines decide which brands to recommend?
AI engines recommend the brands that credible third parties describe clearly and consistently. When a buyer asks which firm to hire or which product to select, the engine pulls from news coverage, expert commentary, reviews, and a brand's own website, then summarizes what it finds.
As summarized by industry coverage of the Gartner report, press releases earn the fewest citations. That fits what I see in practice. A release sent over a wire creates another copy of a claim. A reporter who tests the claim, quotes an expert, and publishes a story creates evidence. Engines cite evidence.
This is why a larger budget will not fix a weak program on its own. Money spent on volume, meaning more releases and more distribution, does little. Money spent on stories a journalist would actually publish, and on experts a reporter would actually quote, is what shows up in the answers.
What does a doubling mean for the PR industry?
It means more investment in media relations, expert positioning, thought leadership, and reputation. For 25 years, PR professionals have argued that third-party credibility is the most valuable asset a brand can own. Now the world's most influential discovery tools are proving it. When budgets double, CEOs and boards start seeing communications as a growth driver, not a cost center.
It also raises the bar for agencies. A bigger budget brings sharper questions from the finance team. Which stories ran? Which outlets? Did the brand start appearing in AI answers? Agencies that can answer those questions with evidence will win the new money. Agencies that report clip counts will not.
What else did Gartner predict for communications leaders?
The budget forecast is the first of five predictions in Gartner's Predicts 2026 research for chief communications officers, which looks ahead to 2029. Based on published summaries of the report, here is the full set.
| Prediction | Timeframe | What it means for brands |
|---|---|---|
| Earned media budgets | By 2027 | Mass LLM adoption drives a twofold increase in PR and earned media budgets. |
| Internal channels | Reported in summaries | AI chatbots reshape the internal channel mix, with conversational tools replacing the traditional cascade and newsletters. |
| Narrative intelligence | By 2029 | 45% of CCOs adopt narrative intelligence technology to monitor reputation as disinformation accelerates. |
| Employee personalization | By 2029 | 75% of communications teams use employees' digital footprints to personalize internal messaging. |
| Analytics spending | By 2029 | Spending on data and analytics doubles from 2.9% to 6% of the communications budget. |
Read together, the five predictions describe a function that moves from producing messages to proving results. Budgets grow, but so does the expectation that every dollar can be traced to an outcome.
Why does narrative intelligence matter?
Narrative intelligence matters because false stories now spread faster than a traditional monitoring tool can flag them. Gartner's abstract names accelerating misinformation and disinformation as a core pressure on CCOs. Summaries of the report add that legacy listening tools can miss the early warning signs of a damaging narrative, and that only 14% of CCOs plan to invest in narrative intelligence within 18 months.
That gap is an opportunity. A brand that spots a false claim in hours, and has credible spokespeople and reporters ready to correct it, contains the damage. A brand that finds out from a customer or a headline pays much more. Speed of detection is becoming part of the earned media budget, not a separate line item.
Why does measurement matter more when budgets grow?
Measurement matters because bigger budgets draw scrutiny. Gartner's analytics prediction, from 2.9% to 6% of the communications budget by 2029, signals that leaders expect proof. One analysis of the report noted that PR has historically spent a smaller share on measurement than marketing has.
For earned media in the AI era, I would track two numbers that move independently. The first is appearance, meaning how often AI engines name your brand when asked about your category. The second is citation, meaning how often they link to or credit a source about you. Our AI visibility gap research shows that a brand can be named often and still earn few citations. Tracking only one hides the problem.
What does 5WPR see in the data?
As 5W AI Communications enters its 25th year, this is the moment we have been preparing for. Our AI Visibility Index research shows the same pattern Gartner describes: the brands AI engines recommend are the brands with consistent, high-quality earned coverage. One example is The AI Visibility Gap: Why AI Chatbots Don't Cite You, where teams were named often by AI chatbots but rarely cited as the source. We help clients build the coverage that earns both.
What should brands do now?
- Check what AI engines say about your brand today.
- Move budget toward earned media and expert commentary.
- Put your leaders on the record with reporters.
- Measure results by coverage quality and AI citations, not clip counts.
What does a first 90 days look like?
A first 90 days starts with a baseline, moves to earning coverage, and ends with a measurement habit. This is the order I recommend to clients preparing for a larger earned media budget.
| Phase | Actions | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1 to 30: Baseline | Ask the major AI engines the questions your customers ask. Record which brands appear and which sources are cited. | A written picture of where your brand appears and where it is missing. |
| Days 31 to 60: Earn | Pitch data-led stories and expert commentary to the outlets the engines already cite. Prepare spokespeople. | Published coverage that a reporter wrote, not a release that you distributed. |
| Days 61 to 90: Measure | Repeat the baseline questions. Track appearance and citation separately. Set up early detection for false or damaging stories. | A before-and-after comparison and a monthly reporting routine. |
Is the forecast certain?
No. This is a forecast, and some researchers have noted that Gartner has not published the methodology behind the doubling figure. One researcher has argued that the claim has circulated as established fact far beyond the setting where it first appeared. That is a fair standard, and readers should hold every prediction, including this one, to it.
It is also worth saying that a larger budget does not guarantee better results. Money poured into weak stories or unfocused distribution will not change what AI engines say about a brand. But the direction is clear, and I see it in client conversations every week.
Conclusion
To our clients, our team, and the journalists we have worked with for decades: thank you. Year 25 will be our best yet.